pugsley,What analysts say is mere speculation, as no one knows...

pugsley,

What analysts say is mere speculation, as no one knows what the rules of the NBN game will end up being, all that is up for negotiation.. If I ran my investment decisions based on analysts/brokers recommendations I would be broke, as would be most private investors..

If you read all the media reports on this NBN, they come to the same conclusion that the FTTP network will not be built/commercial without Telstra's participation, as was the case with the FTTN.. Conroy is aware of this and all the rhetoric to date was designed to engage Telstra..

The company has accommadated with the changes announced on Friday..

The chances of Telstra doing nothing is not on the agenda, the processes confirming this were put in place a month ago.. What they will establish is whether this sparkling new FTTP is commercial and whether the negotiated returns for the private players will justify the enormous expense/cost of building it.. If so, Telstra will participate and WILL BE the main player.. If not, they will go it alone and upgrade their existing networks, comfortable in the knowledge that the FTTP will never be built.. Either way, acceptable growth in earnings can be achieved.

Will the Government kill Telstra with overly onerous regulation and end up without any operational telecommunication infrastructure?? I do not think so..

Politically, they cannot afford to.. Read the statements made by Nick Minchin and you will realise that, if you get rid of the Rudd Government the Liberals will not follow the same line on either this network or regulation of Telstra.. The voters/taxpayers with a vested interest in Telstra for their financial prosperity, certainly have the voting power to achieve a change in Government..

What everyone needs to keep in mind is that Telstra is a cash cow..It is a defensive, dividend orientated investment and as such will always be a long term investment..

Having said that, there is enormous value locked up in the businesses within Telstra that is not reflected in the share price and once the current scenario plays itself out, you will find that the new management will start unlocking this value in the medium term..

The listing of at least 2, maybe 3 divisions was on the table prior to Sol taking over.. He put a stop to it because these divisions needed to be shored up and developed.. This process is now complete and will be the means used by Thodey over the next 5 years to unlock this share holders value and this is why Telstra, in my opinion, is a great medium to long term investement..