I think the most likely result at Duhat-2 is a duster. I like...

I think the most likely result at Duhat-2 is a duster. I like the chances of success at Cinco more, but I certainly wouldn't give it more than a 20% shot at success. It is, after all, a speccy oil stock. High risk, (potentially) high reward. But what I like about OEL is that the company isn't betting everything on just these wells - it already has good cashflow and plenty of other good prospects. Too many speccy oil stocks are one or two-well wonders that have nowhere to go (and no cash left) if those big bets come up as dusters. The stock price of OEL will bounce around depending on how these next two go, but there is some staying power to the company.