Steel demand to fall next year, Steel Business Briefing (SBB) survey shows Monday, 20 October 2008
A large majority of participants in a Steel Business Briefing poll believe world steel demand will fall next year. Almost two-thirds of respondents (65%) say demand will fall by at least 1%, and over 43% believe the fall will be greater than 4%.
Only 24% of those participating said they think steel demand will increase next year. And only 11% believe the increase will be greater than 4% over 2008’s level.
As SBB recently reported, the World Steel Association (formerly the International Iron & Steel Institute) has declined to publish its demand forecast which normally appears each October. It blamed “high economic uncertainty” for withholding the data, but said it still expected steel demand to grow in 2009 and for the medium term above the world GDP growth rate.
The average view among steel industry executives attending the association’s recent annual meeting was that demand in 2009 would rise by 2-3%.
But respondents to the survey on SBB’s website were considerably more gloomy. They commented that steel demand will dip because of falling oil prices and the shortage of credit.
One participant said “the decline will be in excess of 15%.” Another said: “prices went up too fast; we are seeing a repeat of 2004.” Readers will recall that in 2004 steel prices rose steeply to then record levels, only to plunge back to earth in 2005.
UMC Price at posting:
55.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
