Whilst China has recently posted healthy growth they must be suffering some downside as a result of Covid; both because of the drop in demand for many of their manufactured goods and the adverse world reaction to their confrontational economic and territorial diplomacy. A large drop in coal imports will in the short term only affect steel making metallurgical coal imports because it is reported that their electricity companies have already used all their current Australian thermal coal quotas.
I also note that metallurgical coal export and price drops over the last 12 months have been progressively forecast by the Australian Office of the Chief Economist to decline in 2020-21 and I would expect that mining and haulage contractors would also have been progressively adjusting their operational planning as a consequence.
I also suggest that there may be sufficient demand from the remaining Asian steel mill market for our export coal to take up some of the China slack. And, it seems Chinese mines do not produce the quality of coal required for steel making so in a stronger economy their future requirements should escalate.
The PM reportedly stated that "It's not uncommon for domestic quotas to be in place in China," and "We're looking at those reports and obviously raising the issues with the relevant authority.”
In regard to AZJ it is reported that 60% of this year’s coal haulage contracts are in place and further their overall business is not restricted to coal but includes other rail haulage and network operations.
I hope this helps thread followers.
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