christmas crash, page-47

An '87 style crash is always a possibility but the adjusted indicators I use don't put us within cooee of that overbought status.

Remember that 82-87 here saw a 5.2 x price increase in 5.2 years.

This time we have seen a doubling of price in nearly 4 years so from that point of view there is little comparison.

The fact that the last bear didn't probably do enough serious damage adds some weight to the bear scenario.

At the same time some of my indictaors show the 2000/2 downturn in the US doing as much damge to indicators as 1974 which in the last 50 years was the worst.

I feel we have an ABC crunch coming with an '07 nasty, a rally of a year of three and then a much bigger bear into 2013 or so.

You can't pretrade these ideas but only be prepared.