85% of those infected will be either symptomatic or have mild symptoms appropriate for treatment at home. 10% will have more serious symptoms including mild pneumonia. 5% will have serious complications requiring hospitalization and of these a significant portion will die. This disease profile is not the profile of a dread killer disease. It’s more like an influenza.
These figures are being widely quoted in American media and seem to derive from a Lancet article about the Chinese experience.
The US has had two deaths, and in both cases the victims were elderly with underlying health conditions. Both also seem to have contracted the virus from community contact. Epidemiologists are thinking now that the virus may have been on the loose in the US for weeks, undetected because symptoms of infection in most victims are so mild that they went unnoticed or were misdiagnosed.
Covid-19 may be a novel virus, but it seems to be a distinctly non-virulent one.
85% of those infected will be either symptomatic or have mild...
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