The ABS figures are calculated inappropriately. They are based on a comparison to base lines with no adjustment made for population growth or population aging.
From the ABS Report:
In 2022, there were 144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September and were registered by 30 November, which is 19,986 (16.0%) more than the historical average.
In this report, data for 2021 is compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the 5 years from 2015-2019 as was the case in previous publications. Data for 2022 is compared to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected.
From the first table you can see that the 2022 population is 832,000 greater than the average in chosen baseline with variations also occuring in the specified age categories.
A more appropriate method is to calculate death rates per 1 million population within age groups. The following takes the above data and converts to deaths per million:
The Excess deaths calculated this way totals 9,455. (note: I have used the average death rate per million for the 2017-2021 years rather than drp the 2020 data from the calculation).
This compares with the ABS quoted Covid-19 deaths :
"Between January and September 2022 there have been 8,160 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor."
After adjusting for Covid-19 deaths, the only age group with Excess Deaths in excess of Covid-19 deaths is the "persons 85 and Older" category with 1,920 in excess 0r 0.35% of this age population.
