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Ichimokou

874 Posts.

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28/02/20

10:40

Post #: 43207942
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Originally posted by PZ99: ↑

Impossible at this point to do more than guess as to how things will pan out, but given that we know that China's blood collection system has collapsed owing to the Coronavirus epidemic, and that Chinese stocks of fresh blood are close to zero (fresh blood has only a 40-day shelf life), it seems very likely that China's ability to manufacture plasma derived drugs (including e.g. intravenous immunoglobulin, used to fight infections), is also close to zero.

Since the Chinese players in the plasma space (Shanghai RAAS Blood Products, and Beijing Tiantan Biological Products) must be just about shut down at this point, and there's already a critical world shortage of plasma, I wouldn't at this point see much risk to CSL in terms of revenue ex-China, although perhaps some short term logistics-related delays and disruptions to getting product in and out of the country.

If China decides that it's got no choice but to open up its market to imports, I would see a very significant marketing opportunity for CSL, again limited mainly by supply constraints.

In any event, I see this as all being very positive for plasma pricing.

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A very thoughtful post, PZ99, I appreciate it. Thank you.

CSL Price at posting: $312.15 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $309.79		Change 1.985(0.64%)		Mkt cap ! $149.8B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$310.21	$311.38	$309.45	$48.76M	157.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	49	$309.76

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$309.81	65	6

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
15	165	309.830
5	67	309.810
8	123	309.780
1	5	309.770
3	44	309.760

Price($)	Vol.	No.
309.860	45	7
309.880	144	5
309.890	25	1
309.900	10	1
309.910	200	8

Last trade - 13.06pm 20/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

CSL (ASX) Chart