I certainly wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility, although I would put it at a sub 1% likelihood for the following reasons:
Peptron have a free hit in a way, they can participate in the upside of IXC's Phase III with an "option" holding in form of a manufacturing contract which could generate $380M USD profit over the next decade if the IIH trial succeeds, and they lose very little if it doesn't come through. Of course, this manufacturing contract is highly mutually beneficial to both parties, IXC saves $3M-6M in reformulation costs, and saved 12 months of development time, with favourable fixed cost manufacturing regardless of the amount of doses supplied, and all toxicology studies done/signed off by regulators. Therefore, the Peptron risk/return profile makes more sense to continue this "option" holding rather than allocating cash for IXC equity that may be worth very little if the phase III fails to meet its endpoints.
Meanwhile, IXC shareholders such as Tattarang, who invested more recently at $1.30 per share at the last CR, would not want to be diluted at this low of a market cap (even at $100M/$1.30) as that greatly hinders the upside case of their investment with no decrease in risk (if Peptron bought a strategic stake in IXC, the phase III risk remains the exact same, although with a greater amount of shares, the equity upside is worse). So I would assume they would vehemently refuse the above strategic stake if put to a special resolution vote.
What I find of interest is Lilly, with their GLP-1a successes with Tirzepatide and the industry hype around variations of GLP-1 agonists in general. A drug that has variants that helps with diabetes, weight loss and intracranial pressure in Phase II trials.... the patent rights to use GLP-1a's in indications for raised intracranial pressure may be worth a strategic merger.
Consolidate the manufacturing processes, patent rights to go after TBI/Acute stroke indications following proven MOA in IIH after the risk has been taken by IXC in the phase III... I would not be surprised to see many, many eyes from big pharma companys with existing GLP-1a products waiting for the IXC read out in a 24 months time.
$500M-$750M is peanuts for a strategic merger like the above, when they had FCF levels of $5.23B in 2022 alone (Eli Lilly), and would open the door to $2B-$3B in EBIT from IIH alone, and far more if other indications are a success...
Thats $7.00-$10.00 in share price at that takeover level.
I would prefer IXC management take that route, but I do love the speculation regarding Peptron because it isnt out of the realm of possibility.
IXC Price at posting:
45.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)