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DCF Valuation Model for Invex Therapeutics, page-145

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geffa9

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30/03/23

20:38

Post #: 67053706
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Originally posted by jellyroll ↑

@geffa9 - This is an all or nothing strategy, that is what that is the basis on which the listing occurred and that is the basis on which the board has operated. I for one would be very disappointed to see the board issue any equity before readout, I would also be very disappointed if they entered any commercial agreement with respect to IIH prior to read out. There is no need for it and I think it highly unlikely that this would happen. That said, where I would be more than happy to see some form of collaboration or agreement with respect to any additional indications.

INVEX has grasped the hard truth and it is one that very few want to hear. That is, that a small cap pharma development company that fails in Phase III is pretty much doomed anyway. While the equity may limp on and they may rustle up some other API from their development pipeline there is only pain and dilution ahead. Small Cap pre read out derisking via a CR is a sticking plaster and not much more. Typically the primary motivation, is to ensure that the management and the board can be certain of a couple more years of good living while they look for their next position.

With all of that said, we have a very high chance of meeting our primary endpoint and a pretty easy route to market in IIH. Also if the MOA is proven in IIH it will work in other conditions where the poor absorption of CSF causes a build up, which results in raised intercranial pressure. Clinical risk here is just about as low as it can be for a Phase III trial in a novel CNS indication.

To the extent that you want to derisk at some point, I would also suggest that the fact that the market will know that no CR will be incoming during the 6 month climb prior to read out, will mean that the pre read out bump will be larger than normal and you should get a much better price than would otherwise be the case, should you wish to trim a few.

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it reduces risk and NEU did it now they are a circa $2billion company.

IXC Price at posting: 46.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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DCF Valuation Model for Invex Therapeutics, page-145

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DCF Valuation Model for Invex Therapeutics, page-145

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