DCF Valuation Model for Invex Therapeutics, page-147

NEU is a $ 2 billion company, not because they did a CR prior to the Trofinetide read out, nor because they signed a development deal with Arcadia. It is a $2 billion market cap company because they meet their primary endpoints in a phase III trial and have 4 programs in Phase II. In fact, in retrospect the CR that NEU did just before the read out was highly dilutive and has cost existing shareholder's $100 of millions of dollars.

The deal NEU signed with Acadia was orgionally for 3 indications and almost all of the cash linked with the deal is contingent on positive read out and getting FDA approval. The great advantage of this deal for NEU was that Arcadia would fully fund their Phase III. Had they not had this deal in place and been able to achieve the same result they would have gotten significantly better commercial terms than they got from Acadia.

There is a lot less risk in our trial than in the Trofinetide trial. Our MOA is well understood, we have a very well known safety/ side effect profile, we have very clear and common Primary and Secondary endpoints. For the Acadia Lavender trial in Rhett's even now the MOA of IGF-1 in not fully understood, it had significant side effects and many of the endpoints used were messy (lots of caregiver and physicans rating scales and sum of the box endpoionts) Their NNZ-2591 compound will likely be a much better drug. Still focused on IGF-1 but should have a much better safety/side effect profile.