Deciphering Lynas, page-1080

Good post. ALL of the following is JMO. AL was a great speaker 5 years ago. It took lots of skill to take Lynas from near bankruptcy to the company it is to day. Unfortunately, with NEXT she fooled herself into thinking she was a great project manager. Lack of expertise on her staff has caused many projects to fail on all three fronts. Schedule, Capacity, Cost. It is important to note that they have no department managed by a dedicated VP that oversees new design and construction. This is all done by Sr people in manufacturing with a marketing and sales expert overseeing them. These people are good and need to be included but to not have people that are dedicated to this causes problems. As projects cant meet expectations AL does not admit it and tries to talk her way around it. This causes her to stumble and stuttered and occasionally make things up when put on the spot. For example a run rate of 10.5 KT by end of C 2024. Not doing anything about the Lamp C&L restrictions for 2 years after MAL told them they were going to be in place June of 2023. It all came out fine in the end but the fact remains that it seems no one at Lynas knew what capacity and COP would be for KAL. AL is the biggest source of her own problems. They were easily fixed but she thought she could do it all and that is why we are here. Does anybody here realy think announcing a plant shut down 6 weeks before it happens is even OK management. She said they were achieving NEXT run rates in 2019 yet only one Q have they made it. The next Q they were right back to Name plate with no major problems. H1 2024 will be a record setting Half on the low side. MY only question will we have to go back to 2020 to find previous lows or much further. Right now H2 does not look very good either but maybe AL can produce something. She has never shown it before, except for the bankruptcy. Forget all the reason like shorters and manipulators for stock going down. The number one driver of Stock price is profits they Lynas profits have been going down since Q3 2022 and I see little chance of recovery for 12~24 months, That is the driving factor on Lynas Stock price.




The following chart I added my estimates for Q2 and SAR 2024.. Revenue is simple 5 weeks of plant shutdown and falling REO prices Profits will follow revenue.


This company has made less than AU$400M in last 10 years how does that justify a MC of $6.3B. What do you think 2024 will contribute? Time to return to basics for your answers. ridingricho63 you seem to understand this it is others I am trying to help.