Being cautious means, you will be laughed at often. For example I sold all my NVDA at about US$700, it is 860 to day. I invest with rules and one is when Metrics are totally crazy, sell. I knew emotion would carry it higher, but I did verry well since I bought it for 125 less than 2 years before. I have bought gold companies never gold. JMO I do not like it because price is controlled by Emotion not anything that can be analyzed. Again it is JMO .
I believe Lynas has to show they can deliver on increased production this half. I would be very happy if they made 3700 KT of NdPr for half and 1950 for Q4. It would be first time they even came close to what AL said they would do. For example lets look at Q2 NdPr production. They were shut down for 6 Weeks. for upgrades. Evey one says that caused shortfall in output. There are 13 weeks in a Q so they loss 6/13 = 46% of production. They made 901 KT NdPr divide 0.54 =1673 KT far short of 1800KT needed to make NEXT rates. AL made a big deal about how shutdown lowered production, She did not mention any other problems. So why did they only make 901 KT, which was a run rate of 1700 KT a Q. How many people on this board double checked what happened with this verry simple math? Do you remember when she told us in 2019 they had run at next rates for a month and would be at NEXT rates shortly how long before they made NEXT for even a Q Never mind 2 Qs in a row. Yes there were problems. Life always has problems Good planning knows this and compensates for some in advance.
LYC Price at posting:
$5.82 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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