Could you define what Q in the future and what you consider...

Interesting. AL said they will reach a 10.5 Equivalent rate ( not volume ) by end of year. Her reason for this is similar to her saying they would reach NEXT rates in 2018 which still has not realy happened. I am not saying she will not reach this rate she may. Maybe she has learned how to forecast. i would not count on it till I saw real proof in Q3 and Q4 report. what do you think they will be. Rember when trying to achieve any goal it is always eiser in the beginning and much harder as you get closer.

As far as prices yes the falloff in EVs, Wind, tools and home appliances has certainly hurt demand. This has made it easier for China to keep prices lower. I define medium term as 1 to 2 years. you should always define things when they do not have an acceptable meaning. Recover i would define as lynas having sufficient profit to support a 7.00 SP at a PE of 20. This based on current expense growth will take an NdPrO price of 700~ 800 RMB / KG WV. We can wait and see but I would not use that in any of my short term. Less than 15 months estimates unless I see rapid up momentum.

Time will tell. Here is a chart of Quarterly NdPrO output how are they doing so far on NEXT rates. this chart is why I say i will not believe anything from company till I see new trends.

Could you define what Q in the future and what you consider good. I cannot see anything positive for Q3 and Q4 2024 or Q1 and 2 2025. It is so easy to make broad based statement with absolutly nothing to tell people what you mean. I think you have a problem is in that you believe your own hype.

as far as AUS goes he still has not admitted 48 MH was a total bust. He has not refuted any of my recent arguments with data except to say I was wrong many years ago which I have always admitted that when looked at in a very narrow view of only Lynas true but investing is not about one stock. If your portfolio has any stock that is more than 10% of total in $ terms you should think about what you are doing. Lynas has never justified its SP even to day it has a PE of 25.7. If I am correct and they make less than AU 150M in 2024 then that PE goes to Mid to high 30s unless SP falls a lot.

Some hang on AL words about increased production What she said is they were at a 6KT run rate right now. they should be at a 10.5 KT run rate at end of the year. It is always easer to improve when you are far from goal much harder as you become closer. So believing AL here is the run rate and total production for Q3 2023 till Q2 2025. if she does not make it it in Q3 and 4 she has little chance in Q1 and 2
So why don't you conference with your friend AUS and tell me what you think profits will be in each Q and what the resulting SP will be a few weeks after Q and SARs are released. Use any PE you want but some justification should be given for anything over 20.


I have refuted every argument your friend AUS has made against what I said. He has not responded to any of my replies. Probably because you have me blocked. Blocking is a perfect way to believe every thing you think is correct. It has to be because no one disagrees.

Just for record to support a AU$ 7.00 SP at a PE of 20 takes an EPS of $0.35. or a total profit of $326M. would realy like to see how you think they get there by end of Feb 2025! it is so easy for you and AUS to make broad undefined statements. Why don't you try some real data.