Deciphering Lynas, page-13

ausheds: "But Lynas needs more to develop the scale to keep in touch with the Dragon, it is plainly going to have to take some of its mkt."

I would like to better understand your math and logic. Can you elaborate?
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I am going to tentatively disagree on the assumption you know the difference between mkt and mkt share, not that it makes a big difference.

Lynas does not need to take any customers away from China. Does not need to supply anyone that currently is supplied by China.

Some napkin-back math:
"Today" NdPr: Let's call it China 45,000 tpa; Lynas 5,000 tpa; so China 90%
Now consider EV market is like 10% of total NdPr: So that's China ~4500 tpa to EVs and Lynas 500 tpa into EVs
Rest of market grows at 10%.
Five years from now they are making more EVs and rest of market too

Let's say over the next five (5) years will see manufacturers building a total of ~30M EVs requiring 30,000 tons NdPr.
That's 6000 tpa.
Let's say 50% of that is domestic China; and 100% of that is supplied by Chinese; that's 3000 tpa for the Chinese
China's commitment to EVs thus would grow from 4500 tpa to 10500 tpa.
Let's say rest of world demand will be only 50% satisfied by China*: That's another 1500 tpa to be sourced from China.
Lynas supplies the remaining 1500tpa.
*If Japan is 50% of the EVs ROW, Lynas will enjoy the lion's share of that EV-related growth - that's not the same quality assumption for any of the next wave of developers in action; lots of room for upside surprise built into this quick-look.

Summary "Five year" NdPr for EV-related demand: China 12000 tpa; Lynas 500 +1500 = 2000 tpa; China would then supply 83% of EV-related market (Lynas EV-related sales would have grown by 300%.

Chinese overall would need to have grown their NdPr production for non-EV by 10% for each of those five years, so they would be at 65,000tpa plus the EV-related 12000tpa for a total of 77,000 tpa in 2025.

Lynas would grow their non-EV contributions at similar rates from 4500 tpa to 6500 tpa plus the EV-related 2000 tpa for a total of 8500 tpa. Or 100x 8500/85500 - still just ~10% of (much bigger) market. (Yes, we hope Lynas is making 10,500 in 2023, but these are illustrative numbers I am generating, not values from reports, so there's a lot of slop.)

BOTTOM LINE: For great success, Lynas must grow to supply eventual Japan and ROW EV-related demand - nearly a non-existent market at present; that's their mission - no need to take any part of Chinese market or even market share.

All imho.