LYC 0.87% $8.09 lynas rare earths limited

I received data for January that I went through last night, and...

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    I received data for January that I went through last night, and all indicators are pointing up.

    First I'll show how we are tracking with the rolling Q revenue (white line, left axis, AUD), rolling Q NdPr price (blue line, right axis, AUD), and monthly average LYC sp (right axis divided by ten, AUD). All January inclusive.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4135/4135701-a12a4fb8dc4564a4448f1b1219436065.jpg
    As you can see, sp became unhinged in January (but has since then re-joined the trend).

    A few weeks ago I showed that we in December received a huge delivery of concentrate at LAMP- thanks to the first chartered boat load. I'm pleased to say this has continued in January:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4135/4135703-5601b232a248b0c9e7c98cc15495035b.jpg
    (note: no y-axis, use more as a relative guide)

    A few posts up this thread I also mentioned I've managed to track ~20% of our NdPr products, and could calculate a rough sale price. Judging by my data, we made a big jump in January (left axis AUD, white line av. selling price, orange line monthly NdPr price shifted two months forward):

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4135/4135709-71f5f84f16741b03d2b2520e12f7a4f1.jpg


    All-in-all, I'll now make an early call that we will increase our production this quarter to ~1,500t, and our revenue will be around ~$300m. At 55-60% profit margin, we may very well have a higher profit in this current quarter than we had in the previous HY (i.e. >$157m).

    And let me remind everyone, this is still 300t/quarter less than NEXT rate.. and still some distance from current spot prices. Honestly, not a single 'analyst' seem to have a clue as to what is really happening here.
 
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