Deciphering Lynas, page-219

That works for the present, for sure, has been as well.

However, once Amanda can present the 10.5ktpa that Japan has asked "paid for", Amanda will have a lot of cash for growth or divvies and most here have spoken out in favor of the former and against the latter. Investors want growth as a reasonable price. This is not the case everywhere - I own IGO and those investors seemingly just celebrated the other decision.

OK, so Amanda has the money but she can't spend it without talking to Japan because the JARE loan came with annual capex limits (Japan approved a plan in 2019 that would allow Amanda to pay for Lynas 2025 project - and pay dividends if she wished).

As I recall Amanda really only needs to pay JARE down to a certain point before limits relax, but it is well below current indebtedness. As well as well within her ability, as you said.

I think the calculus to push growth is quickly changing at Lynas based on my CC listen and the Q&A. If so, she will need to make a sizable payment if not discharge completely to pursue growth opps that require >$25M capex iirc (I probably do NOT recall correctly, but it's real close by).

Cheap money is indeed nice, but not if it gets in the way of More money. More money is better. All imho.