Update through March:
-First a view of how we are tracking with the rolling Q revenue (white line, left axis, AUD, March inclusive), rolling Q NdPr price (blue line, right axis, AUD, April inclusive), and monthly average LYC sp (right axis divided by ten, AUD, April inclusive).
As you can see, sp has become completely un-hinged from both revenue and NdPr (quarterly price)..
-Concentrate deliveries. As expected now, we have entered a new 'norm' in terms of concentrate deliveries to LAMP:
I won't post this data again unless I see something change. For now, we are delivering high volume of concentrate to support NEXT production levels.
-NdPr price.
While we saw some 'weakness' in the NdPr price through March (expected) and April (partially lockdown driven, IMO), we remain at a very healthy price level. We seem to have stabilised for now. Demand remains very strong.
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Sale price for the ~20% NdPr I've 'tracked' (March inclusive):Left axis AUD, white line av. selling price, orange line monthly NdPr price shifted two months forward):
Our pricing model is (understandably) confidential, but the data seems to be following the two-month delayed monthly NdPr price. Rolling quarterly NdPr price is an option, or perhaps some hybrid of these.. Either way, money keeps flowing in.
Also, I think I saw a question relating to China and lockdown influence on our sales (
@G-Zilla)? I track this quarterly, and can provide the info bellow:
Left axis, USD, Right axis, China % of quarterly revenue
This is quarterly data, while recent lockdowns have affected March/April. Looking monthly, all I can say is that March was our highest ever month in terms of revenue from China. I doubt it has had any effect in April either.. We mainly ship SEG to China, and they are very hungry for it.. Personally, I really can't wait for us to separate the heavies instead of sending away the SEG. I don't care where.. just do it.
All-in-all, we are looking exceptionally strong. In the current and coming quarters, we are looking at ~1,800t NdPr (+/- 50t I guess), with a big expansion up our sleeves. My gut feeling (and reading between the lines of some of the comments from AL), is we have some big news coming up.
While my sp $15 prediction post QR was off, I think it only was the timing that was wrong (in part due to China-covid and Ukraine). While we likely will break $1b in revenue this FY, I strongly believe we will break $1b in
profit next FY (we are already at a run-rate to break that).
Not intended as financial advice, purely factual data presented with personal opinions. DYOR.
(20min delay)