Deciphering Lynas, page-395

None of my charts are based on my estimates. They are all based on Either Yahoo finance or MS. Lynas specific data is Lynas own Q reports.

Couple of points remember there is a 90 ~120 day book to bill delay which AL has explained to Analyst that just seem not to get it. This is in spite of all companies having some type of book to bill delay. Here is a chart of weekly NdPr prices.

Based on this chart they may receive same price for REE as they did in Q2 in Q3, it will be close. If they achieve NEXT rates which you have often predicted but it has not happened yet!!! not even close. , Yes revenue may exceed Q2 . I think that is a risky assumption.

So key to your argument is Volume. Here is a chart of NDPR Volume Name plate for lamp is 6000KT which they have only achieved in 3 Qs. and then just barely. NEXT is 1800 KT the highest they have ever achieved is 1623 Q3 2022. If you want to invest on them achieving NEXT that is fine with me. i will sit back and wait to see some more proof before i invest. Q3 '22 had no production problems and they barely achieved name plate. Yet you expect NEXT?


if i take Lyases best 3 Qs 1591, 1505, 1687 that is 1594 well below Next at 1800 i will use that number till they do something better.
Could you show me why you think 1800 KG is the best number to use.

Last point i know it is popular on this board to blame Elton's statement for weakness in Lynas SP His statement came out on FEB 7 ^th SAR came out on 28 of Febuary I gave chart of S price and you are correct Price fell from 9.17 After Elton's announcement but it was coming back up. Then SAR which had higher revenue, expenses and lower Profit. Then stok fell from 8.37 to todays price. JMO but the SAR has more to do with SP than Elton.