Hi InHindSight
my pleasure! Easiest is perhaps to here give the raw revenue numbers providing the basis for the projections so I can be held accountable:
Notes:
1. Presented in CY rather than FY.
2. Q2 CY23 NdPr price is based on my price model (
Post #:67803039) and is already giving indications for Q3.
3. Revenue calculated using price model multiplier.
3. The future NdPr price is (largely) dictated by how quickly the economy in China recovers (but as mentioned, I'm on the bull side).
4. I have included a slow-down of production in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, which I strongly believe will happen.. However, as a buffer we have built up a significant inventory (of NdPr, finished and work in progress). Inventory may also push us into bull numbers in the current Q.
For profit, I have used 45-50% in base case, 40-45% in bear, 50-60% in bull. Progressive increase is based on economies of scale (see
Post #:58083597).
For sp, long term average p/e of ASX is around 16, but this is more relevant for mature companies. We are a growth stock and should aptly be valued as such. I used the projected profit (base/bear/bull) and a pe of 20 here, but for the coming years I could have used 30+ just as well.
As mentioned, my gut feeling is risk appetite is growing.. the 2nd half of this year can bring some significant re-rates.
All IMO only, DYOR
(20min delay)