Deciphering Lynas, page-525

I dont post here very much because frankly, the quality of posts is really all over the place and is not very material to LYC or its business. Obviously, this is not entire, as many of my long hawl comrades still still valuable information, and I enjoy those posts very much.

The continued discussions about building networks of RE processing plants on each continent, issuing dividends, engaging with CJ, are just folly, and a complete waste of time.

Read Janes for a few weeks, and you will quickly learn what I have been preaching on this board for quite some time. The lamp in Malaysia will not close! Stategically, Malaysia cannot walk away from the Rare Earth industry. China is a complete mess with real estate losses so huge local government, nor business can write them off without causing panic on the Hang Sang. China reopening is very slow, and there is a growing appetite for stimulus. Zero covid was a disaster. You cannot turn off a country of 1.5 billion people, then turn it on like a light switch.

EV's are everywhere in China, but cost effective. Lucid, who is failing with their $100k EV, just raised another 1/2 Billion in cash to manage operations, and it trading as a USA "Penny Stock" ($30 down to $6 a share) And to make matters worse, their management team is taking their 100k car to market in China. I just bought puts against their next earnings report, as the results will be disastrous. They report in end july/early August.

I was shocked how quickly the news of the new US Ambassador to Malaysia was brushed over. Those on this board should really google this guy. It is if he was hand picked to "have Lynas' back" in Malaysia. America and Japan together, have an equal if not more substantial amount of influence on the Malaysia government. Malaysia may be culturally biased towards China, but they also see the aggressive nature of China and its dominance in the region. I can say quite literally that the LAMP will not close while this guy is posted in Kuala Lumpur.


Oh, BTW, UBS was not entirely wrong in its recent rating. Not because of Lynas, but because of the high cost of electricity and the price of EV cars. Knocking down nuclear plants for windmills to feul EV cars is idiotic to say the least. We are supposed to "transition" to clear energy, not not pull a Hitleresque Scorched Earth policy, bulldozing every remnant of current energy grid. Someone on this board raised the issue of saving nuclear power plants for the time being. Brilliant, that is 100% spot on.

My point in writing today, above all else, is about affordability. Please google natural gas and electric costs in the UK and EU. They have crept up again by 60% in the past 4 months. Higher electrical costs along with highly priced EV are keeping the SP for Lynas low.

check out this article for Rivian today:

Rivian is one of the handful of U.S. companies that tried to enter the EV market but failed. The electric truck company bragged it has a backlog of 100,000. However, the people who made the orders had no obligation to buy them, so the figure was misleading. Recent information shows that the backlog may not be huge. According to The Wall Street Journal, “For instance, buyers who once had to wait a year or more for the R1T truck have more recently been able to get one in as little as two weeks, the company has said.”

The lack of a backlog is, ironically, bad news. The demand for Rivian’s core model has slipped so low that getting one quickly is easier than getting a Subaru or Ford.

Rivian has started to sell its vehicles from a lot in front of its Normal, IL factory. Normal is in the middle of nowhere–southeast of Peoria and northwest of Champaign. Is there a worse place to have a “dealership?”

The Journal drives the problem home in another comment: “At the same time, monthly vehicle registrations for the R1T truck, a proxy for sales, have fallen from a peak of 1,829 in September to 950 in April of this year, according to data from S&P Global Mobility.”

Rivian might as well give up. (These are the 13 biggest electric vehicle business failures in American history.)

Rivian’s stock has taken a horrible beating. It is down by 44% in the last year. The overall market is up 20% for the same period. In the most recently reported quarter, Rivian had revenue of $661 million, on which it lost $1.3 billion. In the period a year ago, it lost $1.6 billion. That is barely progress. Hard to save the planet by selling 950 cars...

I can go and buy a Ford F150 at 1/2 the price. With the new grown fear of IA taking my job away, why would I pay double to help save the planet for robots who are out to get me, and put me on street??? Just a thought...

So, all these overpriced EV'S are double dipping and diluting shareholder value. Electric costs are continuing to rise globally, EV cars are selling for the price of what a Bentley coupe' was selling for 3 years ago.

Oh, and that idiot Musk now wants to market an EV which has the same wasteless energy usage as a HUMMER! For 175k. Oh, and he should produce a cost effective car first, and worry about his "self driving" software crap later.

Folks, when the industry has a clear vision and can produce a quality for for USA $50,000.00, Lynas stock wilk be north of $20 a share. Until then, we are in a "Groundhog Day" trading range. Our only saving grace will be that we will have 2x processing plants, with a USA plant in the works. Dont fret over UBS. Put your money on the new Ambassador/Sheriff in town, hope these EV company will wake up and smell their own marketing mishaps.

By the, look at the 3 month chart of MP Materials vs LYC. Given MP ships to china for processing and their parent sells a large part of their RE to Chinese customers, it is proof positive that China has stalled as an economy, and stimulas will be their way out.

GLTA.

Jason