LYC lynas rare earths limited

1.63%

$9.05

Thanks again for a useful reminder Mikaj. Speculatively, the...

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RVR

6,539 Posts.

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21/08/23

09:42

Post #: 69448936
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Originally posted by mikaj ↑

Things to look forward to and potential sp catalysts for the coming ~6 months:

- FY23 financial report (Aug)
Financial report should be coming soon, I'm hoping for a surprise in the profit column and some updates regarding all any/all of points below.

- First output from Kal (Sept)
According to the latest comments from AL, this should happen in just a few weeks. It will be interesting to see how the ramp up goes, first to a level equalling NEXT output. The production is expected to slow down during this transition, but inventory build in the past year means it will not affect the balance sheet too much.

- Drilling results from Mt Weld (Sept-Oct)
As I showed earlier in this thread, LYC made Swiss cheese out of Mt Weld late in the previous quarter. There's been some additional drilling taking place since then, but not as extensive. Assay results probably takes 1-3 months, so I would guess that towards end of this Q is when we should expect results. Possibly together with JORC estimate.

- Outcome of judicial review re C&L at LAMP (Sept-Oct)
Lynas filed for judicial review late July. I would expect this to be 'relatively' swift process. I'm speculating 30-90 days. Odds are not in our favour, but AL seems to think we have a chance (we should have a strong chance based on rule of law, but corruption is rife in Malaysia).

- EPA approval of Mt Weld plans (Sept/Nov)
We submitted our application in Sept last year, and the public review period ended 11 June. We filed our response to the comments just last week (17th). Relatively straightforward, one absolute stickler present in the public review but some of their comments are so ridiculous so I think EPA will largely ignore. Based on previous (slow) actions by EPA, I expect EPA assessment to be ready next month, while ministerial approval will take another 2 months (Nov, or even Dec).

- Ground breaking at US site (January-March 2024)
The land was purchased late last year, while the DoD funding increase was announced 1st of August. The detailed plans are likely finalised given the time everything has been taken, next steps would be to obtain all relevant approvals and to sign a contract with a construction company. Ground breaking perhaps early next year?

Other points, but more speculative:
- Plans for new products (e.g. Nb, P₂O₅)? Acquisition? Take-over? A new plant in Vietnam? SX capacity at Kal? Down steam ventures?

Other thoughts? Missing something?

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Thanks again for a useful reminder Mikaj.
Speculatively, the missing US link is magnet production ex-China. While Japan and Shinetsu-Vietnam have capabilities, US really needs to do more to support critical military technologies, too much of which is still dependent on Chinese magnets at present, I suspect.

Last edited by RVR: 21/08/23

LYC Price at posting: $6.83 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last $9.05		Change -0.150(1.63%)		Mkt cap ! $8.503B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$9.44	$9.44	$9.04	$12.20M	1.331M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
23	5144	$9.04

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$9.05	288	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
15	4168	9.070
25	12669	9.060
16	18895	9.050
11	11061	9.040
8	7548	9.030

Price($)	Vol.	No.
9.080	1681	4
9.090	11434	18
9.100	5061	8
9.110	7196	10
9.120	6355	10

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