For Q4 I did not put out a revenue guess. Simple reason is Mikaj in post #:69036257 Put out an estimate of 204M this was about 50 M more than I thought so to be honest I held back thinking I had something wrong. It turned out actual was 157M so I should have posted. My Bad. As soon as I saw Q report I put out my report for earnings Post #:69234377 which was 271M which was low by about 3 %. So now knowing my figures are not crazy here are my ideas on Q1 revenue.
I believe with 90 day book to bill delay that Average Sale Price will drop 28%. To keep people on this board happy I will use 25%. ASP in Q4 was AUD 40.00 so it will be about $30 in Q1. assuming mix of NdPr, LaCe and SEG is about the same that means revenue will drop from $157M in Q4 '23 to $117 M Q1'24. This will cause a negative cash flow, including CAP X, of $200M to 250M. Bringing cash on hand from 1.011B Down to $750M to $800 M.
I am not going to make a SP guess. My latest guess based on 2023 results SP should be 5.XX right now. I have constantly underestimated the loyalty to this stock Sooner or later this stock will follow standard metrics it is just taking a lot longer than I thought.
If Q1 REE output is about the same as Q4 '23 then Q2 will be similar to Q1. I want to see Q1 Manufacturing and Sales Volume and hear AL CC before I comment on Q2
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LYC Price at posting:
$6.77 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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