Yet another person saying "
It’s undervalued" Many people before you have said this. I ask a simple question WHY? I have asked this many times before and no one has answered. i am sure you have reasons for believing this what are they?
Here are my reasons for believing they are very over valued for about the next year. Why would anyone hold a stock knowing it will most likely drop over next year in the hopes that Texas may be done in 3 or 4 years. Can lamp expansion add enough capacity to boost earnings Per share.
2023 will cause Lynas to go in red for AR. Simply NdPrO is still just over 50 RMB. Because of the 90 day book to bill delay Q2 prices are already done.
add to that that Lamp will be shut 6 weeks for upgrades which lower output by 23 % for half and I do not see how they can have profits in the AR. If you do pls explain. In Q1 Revenue was AU$ 128 M Operating expense was 97M for a difference of 31M but operating expenses are not fully covered in Cash flow report so I have been multiplying by 0.9 to adjust for this so a profit of ~ 28 M Now for Q2 will be shut down for 50% of time. Lynas does not lay people off during Short shut downs. So output will go down to about 900 tons. REE prices when considering 90 day delay have dropped from 660 RMB to 475 RMN. So it looks like the odds in Q2 will be far greater for a loss that is larger than Profit in Q1
Q1 and Q3 Not clear from CC but I think shut down will be about 4 ~ 6 weeks in Q3 Prices are still low. Unless NdPr prices jump 60 % in next 6 ~ 8 weeks I do not see much hope for H2 or the year for profits. Maybe you can tell me why SP will go up when a company goes from black to red but I have never seen it. Or maybe you can tell me where my numbers are so wrong that Profit will not be RED. Maybe you or someone else will finally justify why Lynas is UNDER valued. Two charts for you to consider in your arguments. Or use any info from anywhere else as long as you say where it came from.
All data from SMM on Fridays.
All data from Lynas Q reports.
(20min delay)