distributable profit forecast 31.12.08 is 7.2c, page-33

G’day intellimoney,

The $50m only applies to CSF. The much larger Super covenant says no divs from there while the facilities (plural, meaning all of them), are in place. So ALL Super debt must be gone (or replaced before any divs from that part of the business).

I agree on CER having a problem with $1.4 Billion of debt needing to be rolled over by end of this year (+small $79m by June 30). I think this may be why the market has marked us down. If they could have done something about that facility now, they would have. The market won’t be happy until that one is settled.

Also remember as they sell assets to pay down debt, those assets no longer deliver the income. It can become a death spiral, but fortunately the banks don’t think so, which is a big plus.

But the main thing I wanted to ask is from your last para:
” The only really problem that CER has and it's $1bill worth of debt maturing at end of year but with further asset sales and the US economy on the mend it would be forseen that in a low interest environment and new players entering the retail market to fill the gap that there is upside to this story.”

What makes you think the US economy is on the mend? All the data & everything I read says its still getting worse. Unless you’re watching those permanent denial merchants CNBC & their mates.

As I’ve posted CER has lost nearly all the tenants it talked about in previous ann (around $10m/yr income) & that’s only those few they revealed. What we need to know is how many others have walked & what income they represent. Read ann’s around those lost tenants (google their names) & you’ll also see the expectation is for an increasing number of such tenants going belly up & walking away from CER facilities.

I’m still holding, but the more I think about it, the less confident I am.

Cheers,

Ned.