eli lilley alz success could double market cap

LLY has a market cap of $40B so if Alzheimers could add $40B then if the same applied to Pana with a $40m market cap, a 40B rise would represent a 1000bagger. I could live with that. The Parkinsons market is also huge.

There is a huge difference between LLYs effort and Prana's. LLY went into this large P3 trial with no efficacy seen in phase 2, so as the author insinuated, they are rolling the dice and hoping for the best.

Prana has demonstrated clear signals of efficacy in a human phase 2 trial, and followed it up with research publications providing investors with scientific data showing the many fronts PBT2 attacks the disease, and how they achieved such rapid cognition gains in the trial.

Prana is past proof of concept. It works from what I read. Now they are going to demonstrate how well it works.

[Eli Lilly Shares Rise on Alzheimer’s Drug Hopes
QBy Drew Armstrong and Robert Langreth - Dec 6, 2011 8:57 AM PT .


Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) rose to a one-month high after an analyst said success of the company’s experimental Alzheimer’s drug could double the share price.

Lilly, based in Indianapolis, gained 3.9 percent to $38.85 at 11:46 a.m. New York time after rising to $38.95, the highest since Nov. 8. Expectations have been “extraordinarily low” for the success of Alzheimer’s drugs, so a Lilly success with solanezumab could boost the shares 50 to 100 percent, Tim Anderson, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, said in a note.

“Eli Lilly and several of its competitors are willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on what is essentially a massive lottery ticket,” Anderson said. “If their drugs are successful in delaying the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, they could end up making Lipitor look like a mid-sized product,” he said in a note to clients sent yesterday. Sales of solanezumab could reach $9 billion by 2020, he said.

Solanezumab is an antibody designed to clear protein fragments called beta amyloid that clutter the brains of patients with Alzheimer’s disease. Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Johnson & Johnson and Elan are testing bapineuzumab, a similar drug.

Anderson cautioned that the drug’s chances of success are only 10 percent to 20 percent. Because of the large potential payoff, drugmakers have been willing to gamble on the medicines.

Leading Theory
A leading theory of the disease is that amyloid causes the disease by harming brain cells. Debate over whether the theory is correct has increased as other drugs that target the protein have failed or shown murky results in trials. In August 2010, Lilly stopped development of a pill, semagacestat, that blocked amyloid by another mechanism, after trials found it didn’t slow disease progression.

As many as 5 million Americans have Alzheimer’s disease, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. Alzheimer’s is a degenerative neurological condition with no approved treatment to slow brain cell death.

To contact the reporters on this story: Drew Armstrong]


In my opinion the LLY trial will fail. Not a qualified medico or investment advisor.