The market doesn't appear to be pricing in the T2000 upside...

The market doesn't appear to be pricing in the T2000 upside opportunity in any case so I don't believe it matters to the SP if Team Redback (inclusive of EOS) is unsuccessful with this contract. Purely upside opportunity IMO. I'm no tank expert but I suspect if the 2 shortlisted IFV's are of similar performance standards I suspect the ADF would select Team Redback (Korea/Aus + others) over Rheinmetall (Germany) given the greater sovereign involvement and local geopolitics at play.

The market seems to be waiting for the new RWS contracts, first CUAS contracts and de-risking of SpaceLink via first round equity funding and binding customer commitments. Disappointingly these have all been delayed and some on multiple occasions. I guess better to hear of delays then lost contracts or not proceeding with contracts, but eventually EOS needs to deliver some material wins to maintain the growth trajectory.

First up is SpaceLink funding and initial customer by Christmas. Q1 could feature ~$1b RWS, ~$1b CUAS and ~$1b T2000. Hitting just 1 of these contracts would be great, 2x amazing and all 3x, well EOS could probably deliver SpaceLink on its own rocket...

Management have continued to say in presentations they will materially invest in growth over Q4 and onwards (i.e. increasing production capacity across worldwide locations). I doubt management would continue to invest in capacity unless they have 100% confidence in winning these major contracts, some which we are told are in contract drafting stage and others where EOS has been selected as the preferred supplier.

Seems more upside than downside at these levels.