estimates, page-44

The Post after my brief commentry was Posted by Ya at 11.22am 28/3 ..

Based on Ya's figures as mentioned below,

The share price should be worth approx 14-16c if the IO estimates came in around 750 - 800Mt.

The Jorc amount released today stated 476Mt.

For simplicity's sake:

476 is 60% of 800.

This means the share price should be currently worth approximately 9.6c by those calculations.

This does not take into consideration AREA A. Which has estimates of approx another 250Mt.

That would then equate to a 14 - 16c share price using area A's

These are my ramblings only & are open for discussion.

Ya. I hope you dont mind me taking the liberty of using your figures for the extrapalation purposes.


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Posted by Ya on 28/3/09 at 11.22am
Ya's Post #: 3896179

QUOTE:

Folks

As the end of the month approaches, its time to reflect back on some of our rumblings back in early Feb. Here's my take on the estimates. I know we've talked a lot abt calculations etc back in my Feb postings, time to touch base this topic for perhaps the last time :)

Pre-drill Estimates for CID in E47/882: 615-571 MT

Post-Drilling estimates for CID in E47/882
1) Area B & C have greater thkness
2) Area D & E have a greater areal extent (ie sq km)

For sake of simplicity, I've stuck with 15m thkness.

D: 4.5 sqkms @ 15m = 175.5-189 MT
E: 6 sqkms @ 15m = 234- 252 MT
B: 1 sqkms @ 15m = 52-56 MT
C: 4 sqkms @ 15m = 208-224 MT
Total: 669.5 - 721MT of CID

They've also reported BID covering abt 1.6 & 0.4 sqkm in Area D & E with open thkness, lets just say 15m, which gives us 78-84MT BID. I haven't chk'd BID for area B & C yet.

Overall I'd b looking at 747.5-805 MT+ for Area's B-E (both CID & BID).

Drilling for area A will commence nxt qtr, so if we use the pre-drill CID estimates for Area A (103-96MT), then we get an estimate between 850-991 MT

At an extremely conservative 20c IGV, this equates to $170m-$198m. At a higher IGV of around 50c to a $1, the potential is much more (i.e. $1708-1980m for $1 IGV & so on).

Looking at how this translates to the SP,

Shares on issue: 1208m,
Mkt Cap: $111.13, Cash $14.88m
EV: $96.25m,
Reserve: 850-991 MT
EV/Res ($/ton): 0.113c - 0.097c
Value/Share: 170/1208 = 0.14-0.164c

With further drilling to commence in Area A, the estimates will get updated routinely to a higher figure IMHO.

All the best to those who've held on since '07, Warnie, Druid, Nice One, WillShanShan & Pelm (if u r still around these days).

Just my thoughts

cheers