EV/Lithium, page-331

EVs tend to get all the attention. But the bulk of China's vehicle exports are traditional internal combustion engine cars. And that is where the is clear overcapacity (WSJ reports 40 m in capacity v 15m and falling domestic sales)

https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1789685234373398770

there were concerns (see Keith Bradsher) about overcapacity in China's ICE sector even before EVs took off. Total car demand is now under 25m and it was never over 30m in a sustained way, but folks built for a much higher number. Now supply is potentially basically elastic

https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1789685739887677533

EVs are a bit different -- China made 10m EVs over the last 12ms (over 8 m for the domestic market, just under 2m for export) and most factories are producing close to all out. But there is also a price and feature going on ...

https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1789686862921019863