Expectations for September, page-40

Here is my technical analysis on what I expect for the rest of September, and probably also into October.

It has become clear from substantial holder notices that at least two major holders are unloading. It is not known if they have finished unloading. One of them might soon be below 5%, so then they will not have to report further sales.

For technical analysis purposes, it is immaterial whether the unloading is a reaction to recent bad news or is simply due to stop-loss selling or is due to some other reason.

Daily volumes are now diminishing, after some very high volume days. However, the SP is still falling. Technically, this trend is likely to continue unless more buyers enter the market. There were not enough buyers to match the heavy selling. And now lower volumes and the still-falling SP indicate that there are still not enough buyers to turn things around.

It is not yet known who has been buying all the shares. What is known is that buying demand has not been enough to match the relentless selling. If buying demand is now exhausted and is drying up, then the outlook for the SP is grim

This technical analysis paints a bleak picture, for sure, but unfortunately that's the way that it is. Only time will tell how low the SP will go. Technically, the SP could go much lower. However, the SP is now so low that it can't actually go much lower, and this may well be what has caused so much selling - people jumping overboard to avoid going down with the ship.

Functionally, it is likely that a surge in buying demand could happen at any time if there is a good news announcement, but whether such a surge would be sustained would depend on the nature of the good news. Another possibility is that as the SP falls, at some point the SP might go so low that some new big player might be attracted into the market, but this possibility is not guaranteed.

A good news announcement is the best that can be hoped for. Hope that SPL starts to deliver on its promises. There is potentially a multi-bagger upside if there was an exceptionally good news announcement. Although with SPL's track record an exceptionally good news announcement seems unlikely, it is within the realms of possibility - and this seems to be what makes SPL worth a gamble. If this did happen then with hindsight the current low SP will seem like the bargain of the century. But what are the odds of a breakthrough announcement? Technically - zero. Functionally - who knows, it probably depends on what your opinions about SPL are.