First mine approval share price Risk vs Reward

I been thinking today about the Risk vs Reward of the approval of the first mine for 19ktpa of Anode Material. As many on here already know Talga been trying to get mine permitting in Sweden since first drilling started on the 11 JUNE 2012. With a couple of trial mines approved in 2015 and 2020, but we still hoping to get the official mine approval.

Personally I don't expect huge SP gains with the 19ktpa permitting being granted.
Main thing it will do is ensure the company value does not go down.
If we look at Nouveau Monde Graphite that is 550 Million market cap with permitting and have funding.

Syrah Resources have same catalyst we will needPermitting,Off take agreementandFunding.
Before off take agreement and fundingSyrah Resources was633 Million market capwith existing mine and with permitting granted. Today they will provide11.25ktpaof natural active anode material to Tesla.

Syrah Resources have now securedpermitting,off take agreementandfunding.Valued today at 730 Million for11.25ktpa Active Anode Material.

Talga will produce 19ktpaIF!!!we get permitting.

• With 19ktpa permitting granted, expecting684 Millionmarket cap with Share price of$2.25with 304 Million Shares outstanding.
• Talnode Off take agreement for 19ktpa expecting1.2 Billionmarket cap with Share Price of$4with 304 Million Shares outstanding.
• Funding at 12.5% discounted Share Price. Issue 67 Million new shares at $3.50 to raise 235 million to fund project.
• $3.50 x 371 Million Shares outstanding =1.3 BillionMarket cap at Share Price of $3.50.

In 2023 we are expecting the permitting approval of the 84ktpa Active Anode Material.This is where will see the big SP increase.But its still very much up in the air if Sweden will approve this underground mine so close to protected rivers and lake under the Natura2000 permitting.

At this stage we don't know what the status is of the 19ktpa open pit mine approval. Waiting on the Natura2000 permitting submitted in February 2021.

So I believe there is way more risk now, than after the approval of the first mine. Better to jump in after mine permitting approval?

Agree or disagree?