Great work muddy. Assuming 77% payout ratio & 9% discount for...

Great work muddy.

Assuming 77% payout ratio & 9% discount for 2nd half - I expect total to be at least 20- 25 cents higher though.

Why;

IO for Q3 will avenge closer to $160 imo not $150. Jan ave is around $170 already.

Assuming futures providing a guide, it shows us nothing less than $160 up to March.

For Q4 I think that it will be well above the $130 and closer to $140 perhaps higher. Again Q4 futures is showing us ~$150 - $155 for months of April - May.

It has been suggested that the Vale PdM fire on the 14th Jan will likely reduce IO supply from Brazil significantly. Given the time it takes to get the ships from Brazil to China 5 - 6 weeks we will likely see prices head north in spot & seabourne markets from middle of Feb onwards which is likely to push up the Q3 Ave price.

The shipload boom on pier 4S is likely to need extensive repair or potentially replacement - estimates are that this might take 6 months to repair and move back into full operation.

The other factor here is the impact of vaccines and the global stimulus packages & the significant impact this will have on steel demand.

In conclusion - I think that prices in Q3 averages will likely be at least $160, and Q4 $140 and divs estimated to be around $4.40

just my two cents