FMG Price target $4 Iron ore surplus

China property bubble and over capacity.
China has too much debt and over capacity to maintain its economic growth and output. They have international opposition to global expansion and becoming a proxy world bank to developing nations by lending to create infrastructure. They also wish to punish Australia for challenging their colonization and exploitation of poor countries.

China has a property bubble which can not be maintained. The world is also on the edge of a recession which will likely increase in momentum after September.
There is no money left for another bailout.

Centralized pricing.
China will use the over supply to create a centralized buying system and likely exclude non participants. This will keep iron ore lower for longer and China can dominate contracts to a greater extent.

Likely profit fall to 1.3 billion
I believe iron ore will likely fall to low 40s and that will give FMG around $1.3 billion profit. A pe of 10 will result in a market cap of $13 billion. I would not be surprised if China placed a hold on Australian iron ore imports temporarily or made them unprofitable by interfering with the logistics.
China plays the same game with other Australian imports, ships are stalled at port which eats into profit.

Iron ore surplus.
Brazil is expanding and will create real challenges to Australia miners. Over supply is back and will accelerate a fall in iron ore until the market reaches the long term equilibrium of below $60 ton pre GFC prices.

https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-lowest-since-december-on-worries-of-oversupply-of-steel-in-china/

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/25/more-than-60-australian-coal-carrying-ships-kept-waiting-to-unload-off-ports-in-china

https://www.copyright link/markets/commodities/china-s-snowballing-crisis-to-hurt-australian-iron-ore-20220823-p5bc18