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Jakolu

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12/09/23

16:36

Post #: 69829360
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Originally posted by George1972: ↑

@chilunsun
I have looked into the tea leaves and the ball tickler we may experience is thus forth:

Going on what has been repeatedly and consistently said by management … Charmaine, Anthony and James all; at various times.

1) a deal is not contingent on Tox data

2) ANP not taking this drug to market

3) ANP only have enough funds to complete the trial

4) they are now also talking about selling the drug in markets like Japan and China!! This is significant!!

5) they constantly refer to the Capricor deal with NS Pharma for the US only being US$30m upfront, US$700m+ in milestones and royalties.

6) NS pharma only have 1 exon skipping drug approved in the US.

7) They consistently say Capricor’s drug is not as efficacious as ATL1102 and therefore would not have anywhere the potential revenue as ATL1102

8) James stated in the share café presentation last Friday .. “a licensing deal could come NEXT MONTH, NEXT QUARTER or NEXT YEAR “ !!!!! Next month??? This is a new one. Maybe it is contingent on a new deal with Ionis??

9) they repeatedly say that ATL1102 will be the Standard of Care for DMD and all other drugs will piggy back on ours in combination. This is a powerful statement.

On this basis, I will take a wild stab and say there will be a licensing deal before Xmas. It will be for the US only. It will be US$30m to US$50m upfront. With US$500m on FDA approval and then double digit (17% to 22% licensing fee).

It may also come with the licensor paying for a US based P2b exon skipping combination trial which would cost them US$20m. There would also be another milestone payment on a successful Combo trial result.

ANP retain worldwide rights Ex USA.

So in conclusion
US$30m to US$50m cash
US$500m milestone late 2024 on FDA
20% royalties
Potential milestones on successful combo trial

ANP retain rest of world rights for
DMD
ANP retains LMGD
ANP retain PRV
The other thing I considered was maybe the Licensor may take a 10% equity stake in ANP as well like Roche did with Sarepta. They would pay extra cash for that and get a board seat.

Thoughts?

Expand

Brilliant writeup George! Based on your 'back of the napkin' calcs, what type of market cap do you foresee with that scenario?

ANP Price at posting: 6.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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