FUM comp ... who'll get nearest to the pin?

A lot of people seem to have different views about what Funds Under Management figure MFG will report next...

Obviously it'll be this figure

MINUS the st James Place mandate
Now here is the thing what was that mandate actually worth?
One analyst at Jardin says $18.6 bn but there have also be reports in the AFR of anything up $23.3bn
and then you look at what the Magellan says 12% of the groups revenue.
That would seem about right based on this table ...


the "1" would be the St James Place mandate and all the rest, some 130 institutions are worth less than 3%
Now revenue on 30 June '21 was $715m
so 12% x $715m = $85.8m
ie the Saint James Place mandate generated $85.8m for the fund manager.
Average Base management fee = 61 bps or .0061%
capitalised $85.8 / .0061% = $14bn FUM
$14bn is much less than $18bn and $23bn
PLUS funds under management may have actually grown marginally as they did from Oct to Nov
In fact we might actually be looking at an FUM figure that is actually better than expected.
I know it is a gamble but I would like to say the next FUM figure will be $99 bn