Hi batcher,
There is of course a possibilty that particularly those investors who took part in the RI will take a ca. 100% profit over the coming few days and weeks (I will not be). Having said this, all investors have their own investment goals and own individual financial and tax (CGT) circumstances, which often also have a lot to do with their age (which is another story) and thus very little to do with the actual long term outlook for CNJ.
Whether we see major selling over the coming few days and weeks will very much depend on each investor's individual longer term perspective i.e. do they think that the CNJ SP (and the GAL SP?) is going to move significantly higher over the next 6 months, or do they think that it is already at its year's high?
IMHO, the answer is pretty easy i.e. if CNJ confirm (assay results are expected in September/October) that they have a GAL Callisto style PGE etc. discovery at their Mt. Thirsty MTJV Project (in the eastern part of tenement R63/4), there isn't much doubt that the SP will rally immediately over 4 cents (4 cents = MC A$50 million), with a MC of A$100 million (SP = 8 cents) a distinct possibilty. Under this scenario, anyone selling right now would be foregoing a major profit (one of the major mistakes that all investors make is selling out far too early).
However, in addtion to Mt. Thirsty, CNJ also have East Greenland.
Here again, if CNJ confirm that they have a major discovery at Ryberg (drilling etc. will commence there in June), where they already have several highly encouraging prospects, this could give CNJ an immediate and additional MC of A$50 to A$100 million (assay results will probably be released to the market in August/September).
The same goes for Mestersvig, where CNJ also already have several highly encouraging prospects i.e. a major discovery could potentially add another another MC of A$50 to A$100 million (assay results are due in November/December).
Here is my current take on the potential MC of CNJ by year end (worst case scenario):
1. MTJV cobalt/nickel project MC = A$50 million
2. MTJV PGE etc. discovery MC = A$50 million
3. Ryberg discovery MC = A$50 million
4. Mestersvig discovery MC = A$50 million
Total MC above = A$200 million (SP = 15 cents)
Notes to the above: If CNJ were to have a truly massive discovery at either their MTJV PGE etc. project, at Ryberg or at Mestersvig (or all of them?), my above MC valuations would obviously be far too conservative. In addition, there is also the possibility that within tenement R63/4 of their Mt. Thirsty MTJV Project, CNJ may also have a major nickel resource at depth (in the western part). However, at the moment I have not factored this possibility into my MC calculations/valuations until I get more information from CNJ (TAJ) In the form of a 3D model or other updated geophysical data etc..
Having said all of this, there is another factor that could significantly influence the CNJ SP in the very short term, and thus accordingly CNJ investors short-term profit taking considerations, and this is a further significant increase in the value of GAL's Callisto discovery and thus a significant rally in the GAL SP. To be more specific, in the short term at least, the newsflow from GAL with regard to their Callisto PGE etc. discovery i..e additional assay results which are pending, including a special lab test to ascertain Rhodium grades (Rhodium is already known to be present), may have a very positive effect on the GAL SP, which of course could also have a very positive knock-on effect onto the CNJ SP.
Finally, to be honest, if I was Mark Creasy, GAL, IGO, or another heavy hitter, I would be currently licking my chops i.e. if there are plenty of short term profit takers suddenly offloading their shares over the coming days and weeks, I would take this opportunity to "hoover" up the vast majority of these cheap shares (200 million shares is about 15% of the CNJ SOI, and as such this would be a very nice major strategic shareholding).
For me personally, if any short term profit takers want to offload some cheap CNJ shares, I will be waiting with open arms (you can call me Sponge Bob).
Cheers.
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