General comments/chat, page-10430

Hi @xsolAs promised here are my thoughts. I punched a little spreadsheet together and refreshed all prices as of a few minutes ago. Understand that these are my figures, my assumptions, and I am quite prepared to massage these figures with some constructive open dialogue. Standard disclaimer of course to DYOR, and none of this is investment advice. I've been wrong before, maybe again today.

These are my workings. Essentially the MC right now, and have added all future proceeds from ADNOBs (1.2c) and SPP (5c)

		ADN	MEP
1	Shares Mil	1670	451
2	Price	0.088	0.057
3	MC Mil	146.96	25.707
4
5	ADNOB Options/SPP Mil	481	20
6	Money in (cents)	1.2	0.05
7	Proceeds Mil	5.7	1
8
9	new MC	152.66	26.707

* Perhaps dilution of ADN due to ADNOB is partially built in, and MEP SPP also could be under/oversubscribed
** Lets just assume all ADNOBs will be converted

MEP has 25% interest in Great White, and 50% of Natural Nanotech. It therefore makes no sense to use the MC of ADN, but an adjusted MC.This is where witchery comes into play, and assumptions (however accurate they may or may not be) need to be made.

One large difference is Mt Hope which is in an excellent location and contains Ultra Bright High Purity Koalin.I would expect this to be a notable asset in ADN’s portfolio, potentially ¼ of our Halloysite Koalin project and an easy 1c of our share price would be attributable to Mt Hope, perhaps more.

Speculatively, I would suggest some premium is also built into ADN due to the Cement Application testing that is currently progressing.This could be substantial, and I don’t know how to value this,but certainly this potential (although speculative) is built into the share price.

ADN is also in a JV with Cobra, who are drilling faster than dentists. With a new floor (hopefully) in the XAG/XAU price this JV also has to be valued into the shareprice. With the price of PMs sitting where it is, and the potential for higher I would expect this to be approaching 1c per share.

Then there are other projects with Evolution, Pilbara, and Copper Recovery but as this puzzle is already hard enough lets attribute 0 value to this.

So if we allocate a solid value of 1 cent+ to Mt Hope, and 1 cent+ to the rest we can assume 2c+ of ADN's share price is 100% ADN.

Below I repeat the Spreadsheet, and this time deduct 2c from the share price, effectively isolating ADNs 100% assets

		ADN	MEP
1	Shares Mil	1670	451
2	Price	0.088	0.057
3	Mt Hope, Cobra etc	-0.02
4	Price without 100% ADN	0.068
5	MC Mil (1)	113.56	25.707
6
7	ADNOB Options/SPP	481	20
8	Money in (cents)	1.2	0.05
9	Proceeds Mil (2)	5.7	1
10
11	MC (1) + (2)	119.26	26.7

119 at 25% = 29.7. So one could assume MEP has an ADN value of 29.7M, and is trading at a 10% discount

But then there are other factors to consider:

- MEP being a minority holder at 25% (currently 49%) would possibly warrant some discount in valuation?
+ MEP has other projects which would need to be added onto MEP's MC.
+ MEP has a 50% interest in Natural Nanotech. The calculations above just treats this as 25%

Both are going to make money These are my opinions only, and stand happy to be corrected. DYOR is best.