General comments/chat, page-17187

ALL IMO and no offence Goldhawk

When making models and assumptions of what the SP might be it is interesting what PE ratio is adopted.
I suggest the PE ratios will always come back to the industry or market average.

In reading the ASX Article in the link it shares a little about the PE ratio for 2021
https://www2.asx.com.au/blog/outlook-for-australian-shares-in-2021

The article essentially shows the 10 year average PE ratio for ASX200 is 17
The current average is for ASX200 is 25
The reason cited for PE ratios to be driven higher in recent years is because the average dividend yield is 3.3% versus a current cash rate of 0.1%!!!

ADN are in a lucky position to have many share price catalysts (product and market opportunities) that punters can price in. ...and hopefully ADN will be successful in many markets, especially carbon capture. However, over the longer term 4-5 years when most of these markets are in production ADNs PE ratio will likely settle towards the PE ratio average at the time. Further, when interest rates start to go back up we IMO should expect the average PE ratio to soften. e.g. In the book Bulls Bears and the Croupier, written about 10 years ago, the author talks about the average PE ratio being 10. The lessons learned from the book suggest if a company has no significant share price catalysts in its future and is trading above the average PE ratio then expect the SP to pull back at some point. IMO today, ADN is a long way (minimum 3 years more like 5 years) from this situation.

I guess I have conservative expectations on the PE ratio

Just some food for thought for those making SP models of what might be.

GLTAH