Hey novac. Thanks for your posts, re-affirming what most likely most/all of us know.
I've seen this play out on a number of other speccies. Took me a while, and the loss of a lot of spec money before I figured out how this works. Cleverly arranged, it is an almost sure fired plan to make some money. But is this the kind a person you want to be, and how you want to earn a living? Not me!
You look for a young mining stock that has recently shot to prominence and has gone up. Then you attack it and spread FUD. There are always some "credible" stories. Invariably the SP does exactly what you expect it to do: Drop.
Then you watch as fear and panic sets in, esp. in a retailer dominated stock. You cleverly stoke these fears with a few targeted posts on social media. As more stop losses get triggered, even relatively committed holders get cold feet and sell some. That triggers more losses and on it goes - until a bottom is found - which we may have but I would not bet on it yet.
They then move on to another unsuspecting target. But the attached junior stock will now show their metal. Either the damage is done, and it severely compromises eg their cap raise or allows somebody else to come onboard cheaply (these might all be further motivations, and time will tell [or how professionally orchestrated the draw down is]).
Many speciies can end up in the wilderness for a while and they need some new excitement to draw in new "suckers". That's when the target mineral or site or the directors change, the board and new SHs enter. Largely because things were extremely risky, somebody has gone out on a limb, lifestyle coys, often passing on the hot potato after a few terrific drill results.
This is were, IMO, ADN is soo different. For all the reasons you described, this is Not a company that will take years to go to production (instead 10 months! [22/2/22!]), it does not need 10x its mc in capital (we need <10% of our mc! - the other way round). Our IRR is not 17.5% - its 175%(!),. We do not need complicated mining gear,. There is not a high process risk, and the permit risk is low. Plus we do not have a hyped up highly cyclical metal/mineral. All is rock steady, solid, with a huge proven resource that is getting better and an MD and a team around him that is rock solid, holding the ship steady, steering clearly ahead with a laser like focus.
So why should I worry about the only non-constant which is the day to day SP. In a few months, maybe even weeks, this will be all but a blip in the curve. So why even spend time trying to argue with ppl who will not change their mind as their only objective is to draw you in to amplify the noise.
Have I thought about: Should have sold some at 44 and now rebought? Absolutely! What I do know though is that in the past when I tried it, I made peanuts, and more typically the market moved against me. I then bought back in at higher prices. Since I've selected more carefully into who I invest, why, closely check them out, and Hold(!) I've made serious $$$. Thing is, in hindsight it is very easy to know what you should have done.
One thing that does not change is: While your investment thesis is intact, stick to it, and ignore the noise, don't even engage. Has done wonders for me - and helps me sleep easy even after such a big haircut! I know why I am here. This is not a fly by nighter. IMO, this is the real McCoy and it will make a lot of - patient - people very rich and happy.
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