I make decisions based on what I know, and logical deduction.
Yes, its possible the shorters “know something”. But its also possible they don’t, and this is just a momentum play. Or a million other things.
Yes, its possible that the capex and opex have blown out. I won’t know until the DFS is released. Until then, who am I to believe? Professionals with university degrees who have a reputational stake in ADN's future? Or anonymous twitter posters who also push covid conspiracy theories, with zero reputational stake in the game? The same posters have hounded other stocks, like FMG, mocking shareholders, calling them stupid, then disappear when the SP recovers. So its not even like they are reputationally invested in making correct calls.
As I’m writing this, just over $730K has traded today. Hardly massive. The twitter crew have thousands of followers. A dozen of them acting in concert would have an impact. Is this them? I have no idea. Intraday shorts go unreported. What I do know is this. Logically, why would traders waste precious time banging on about a stock unless they had an agenda. And yes, I have a vested interest in the SP recovery. But I disclose my position. They constantly claim they are uninvested.
I try not to let emotion dictate my investment decisions. Until I know something new, all the rest is pointless speculation. I have a diversified portfolio, I don’t need the money now, I can wear the temporary loss, and I believe the risk is much lower with the BOA. Others’ situations are undoubtably different.
As far as the BOA being a scam is concerned, surely no reasonable person would believe this to be true, which incidentally, will likely be their defence if taken to court. So if you believe the BOA is true, and you are invested for at least 12 months, why would you worry? Remember, the PFS was based on ceramics prices, not coatings. The opex might change, but no reason to believe the margins wont improve.
If anyone thinks the BOA is a scam, then they shouldn’t be invested. They should also probably seek mental health support. If JM and Conrads had created such an elaborate scam (for what gain?), I’m sure they wouldn’t have crafted such a poor MSI website, for example. I’ve dealt with major Chinese suppliers, and you wouldn’t believe how bad their website was. Regardless, their product was real, and to specification.
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