General comments/chat, page-27614

The NPAT figure I think you are referring to is the 100%-basis figure I calculated for 5N HPA? (figure highlighted in blue above).

On my analysis above I think the combined NPAT for ADN's share of Stage 1 + 2 of Great White will be about $65M. On a P/E 20.0 that would be a MC of about $1.3B for ADN's share of Great White.

I think for industrial minerals a P/E band of 20.0 to 40.0 is perfectly fine. P/E is really a measure of growth sentiment. Businesses will trade at a P/E of 20.0+ if the market thinks the business will be high growth.

Imerys is currently trading at a P/E of 34.8. Their long-term average looks to be about the 20.0 mark.



It's quite common that when there are sharp economic shocks, P/E ratios shoot up. On the ASX they have now returned back down towards the long-term mean.



If you look at the circled figures below, this is the combined discounted post-tax value I calculated using adjusted NPV discount rates as a mechanism to reflect reduced risk ( once a production stage is in steady-state and any debt paid, risk should reduce ).

So I think GW for ADN on my analysis should be worth $1B in FY2023 and if they successfully ramp up stage 2 then $1.63B by FY2025. This excludes all the other activities. This is just based on Paints & Coatings and Ceramics if they fill production capacity with offtakes by the each Stage achieves production.