Hello Radx, If the economic/market conditions persist (growth...

Hello Radx,

If the economic/market conditions persist (growth slowing), then this stock has the hallmarks of an over priced baggy stock going to something like 4c.

- Not a great opener, using such terms makes you sound like a small time loser or a child who has never amounted to anything more than hanging out on chatboards. That being said, if ADN gets caught up in a mkt meltdown, then we could briefly see your target. But we would need a mkt meltdown.

As much as the conspircy idoits here want you to believe it's about shorters, the reality is that you have massive headwinds for stocks going forward.
Growth slowing, QE tapering, Inflation, possible interest rate hikes.

Ok, so can you explain to me, please, how this is so awful for ADN? Let's take an 'if' scenario. A decent slug of ADN year 1 production is already sold out, let's assume that the CEO is not full of it when he implies that selling the rest is not a big ask. How does 'growth slowing', by which I guess you mean global GDP output, affect ADN when production is sold out? If the CEO has led us up the garden path, then you have more of an argument.
QE tapering - I don't see the relevance of this to the quality of the business. I am assuming that you think that there is a massive economic downturn coming? If that is really what you mean then do you expect that the end of the world is nigh? Because I think that the spread of products for ADN feedstock is pretty broad and if one area falters, then another will take up the slack. I don't know if you recall the early 1970s, but the world did continue, just the deadwood and marginal businesses fell away, albeit this time it is shaping up to be even worse than the 1970s.
Inflation - This one is two edged. Inflation is why ADN have not sold any more of their production yet - they are watching inflation manifest itself as well as watching other sectors of interest develop; either could result in higher pricing. Conversely, costs will rise. How much of that has to be absorbed by ADN we will see. Rising costs will certainly affect almost all businesses going forward, yes.
Possible interest rate hikes - ok, ADN have to borrow money, so interest rates will feature.
From a broader perspective, I think you are saying that the general drivers of a recession are pretty much nailed on going forward from here. Yes, I would agree. But I fail to share your pessimism as to how that would play out for ADN. Not for the first time, I expect well managed businesses with great product and a well diversified user base may in fact rise in popularity when others fall.

You also have less speculative money in the market with people going back to work and also the cutting of stimulus money which people pumped into stocks like ADN.

I really disagree with this. Retail had its chance, and it took it as holders profited by accepting the greater risk profile at the time and buying in the 1 cent range. The company is too far advanced now for larger players not to soon dwarf the retail speculator. As the DFS is announced, institutional money will step in as the risk decreases. The stock should benefit from re-ratings as the potential is better understood and the opportunities become clearer for all to see. In my opinion, people going back to work will have no bearing on this situation. I do not understand what on earth you mean by 'the cutting of stimulus money which people pumped into stocks like ADN.' This company is no longer a 20m aud spec gamble.

If some of the guys weren't so over invested here they would notice that ADN wasn't the only stock that fell back to "fair value" or what the market preceives it to be.

I sort of get what you are saying. But don't the facts suggest that fair value is distinctly higher than current price? Your statement appears to be just a general statement that lacks any real resemblnce to ADN facts.

It still puzzles me why so many here still go on about "Shorters" being the reason why the share price is down??

That puzzles me too. Perhaps people are stir crazy from all the lockdowns? There is a 2% short interest, and later, once all is done and dusted, I would love to talk to someone who had short interest at this point and understand why they saw it as such a great shorting opportunity. There is something afoot that I am not seeing, and one day I would like to know what that thing was, regardless of whether it played out or not.

Could it just be that the only people interested in ADN are the die hard baggies on HotCopper and the market is just reflecting that?

Sorry, but anyone who talks about 'die hard baggies' lives in a very different world to me. Investing is a serious business, with real money. I don't know of anyone, anywhere, with even the slightest shred of credibility, who talks of 'die hard baggies' - I find it babyish and frankly pathetic. I would expect children in the school playground to use such vocabulary.

Wouldn't it be more educational to learn about the market dynamics affecting ADN's SP instead of making up theories that you can never prove??

Yes. In this instance, supply of shares has outweighed demand since the high, whereas prior to the high the inverse was true. Not a massive amount of explanation about mkt dynamics needed!
You mention theories that you can never prove. Please enlighten me with some factual demonstration of how QE, inflation, int rates, 'incredible headwinds' etc have affected ADN in the past when they have moved into mining production with initially the Great White Resouce and then others to follow. Obviously, you can't, because it hasn't happened before. So are your theories not also unprovable? Of course they are unprovable. It all comes down to speculation; you make your choice, and the business flourishes or flops, and depending upon how you invested, your investment has increased or decreased. I'm being a little churlish here but hopefully you can see my point - you don't know any more than I do.




Of more concern to me would be ADN offering fixed sale prices rather than running a dynamic pricing book. Things look set to be really wild in the world at large over the next two years, and dynamic pricing would seem prudent. I would say that the modern business world has moved on beyond fixed price contracts. That being said, if I was CEO of a public company, I would also have offered a fixed price contract to my first buyer of significant size. Would I have done that if I were a private company? No, as I would not have to answer to anyone but myself (and also my work colleagues), but a public company demands more caution be exercised at the outset. I would still have dynamic pricing going forward from here, however.

HPA is no cakewalk, and James Marsh has stated how risky it is. I would not be attributing any HPA value to ADN yet. Great hope value, and some very positive vibes from the AEM deal, but we need to see scale up working, and we need to see HPA remaining as the best product to use.

Funding is not yet secured. Obviously that needs to be rectified. We are led to believe that the bankable DFS will unlock this situation.

Finally, people think that a recession always means lower mkt prices. It does usually, but this time, with the monstrous devaluation of money, I'm not so sure that mkts will go down for long and could in fact go to new highs!! That sounds pretty crazy when the economy is on its knees and we have, the world over, nothing but utter negligence taking place throughout government. But mkts reflect values, and the value of a dollar could erode so fast that mkts could go much, much higher than current levels (after a setback) in order to reflect dollar purchasing power. Where would the money come from? I would say that quite possibly a switch to equities from bonds as institutions would see much more value in equities and thus it seems like a safe haven! That sounds crazy, equities becoming a safe haven in a recession, but the world is set to be just that crazy now!