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rjac001

674 Posts.

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19/05/22

14:53

Post #: 61503165
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Originally posted by wallstreet2: ↑

"We should be more worried about the state of the markets.......................... . My biggest fear of a market correction and eventual 1929 market crash has been playing out the last couple of months."

I think this is a correction "we have to have" ( in Paul Keating parlance) which has been bought about by several factors:
-- Increasied inflation caused by factors that have been well documented
-- Overpriced US markets but predominantly the NASDAQ (the Tech sector) which is still trading on a PE of future earnings of 24
-- Fear of higher interest rates
-- Fear of a US recession

Well, your fear of a 1929 recession/depression , with all due respect, is misplaced for the following reasons :

-- The US , Australian and most of the ROW economies are still growing at a strong clip even after 2.5 years of COVID
-- Inflation seems to be topping out in the US, and elsewhere
-- Whilst Central Banks have commenced raising interest rates and most likely will increase by another 2% max, money is and will be still cheap at
historical low levels. The central banks will use other "tools" in their kit such as "jawboning" with regular comments to apply subtle brakes to the economy. America has close to $32 Trillion of debt and the last thing they will want is to crucify economic growth . If interest rates were increased beyond the sweet spot of about 2.5% to 2,8% then the US would begin to struggle to service (principal & interest) on their sizeable debt , and if that was allowed to happen THEN the world economy would fall into the abyss or a black hole. Therefore it is my view that a subtle economic slowdown will be the preferred option to engineer a steady reduction in the inflation rate and steady economic growth. The alternative is not an option.
-- Apart from the NASDAQ the PE's of the other indexes have retreated to around 15 x future earnings which is regarded as cheap levels of entry. Indexes in the UK, most of Europe , China, Australia and most of Asia are trading PE's ofbetween 10 & 15 which are extremely cheap.

So, the current correction is still likely to play out however market nervousness will subside as clarity emerges from the Central Banks' actions and money sitting on the sidelines will need to find a home and the stock markets are still the preferred vehicles for investing given the higher yields from dividends. "Mining" companies will also continue to attract capital given the planet's transition to "all things GREEN"

I see this as a correction and the bottom is in sight and is much closer than the top, and therefore an opportunity for those that invest for the medium to long term.

AIMHO
DYOR

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This statement is incorrect "Therefore it is my view that a subtle economic slowdown will be the preferred option to engineer a steady reduction in the inflation rate and steady economic growth."

Economic slowdown does not reduce inflation, because inflation is caused by increasing the money supply, check out Peter Schiff he has many videos that explain what does not cause inflation but is widely accepted by mainstream media as the cause

ADN Price at posting: 9.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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