Lukej,
To answer your question regards a path out. one would have to think that a path to eventual profitability will occur. It's a reasonable simple operation. It's the change in strategy that has surprised the market. The change has lowered the NPV of the project, for example if you're using a discount rate of 10% then a 12 month delay drops the NPV by 10% because revenue doesn't start flowing for 12 months later, but costs can still be incurred on the earlier timeframe. Couple the delay with a change to a smaller start up plant, then a big change to NPV occurs. No updated estimate has been provided, but my guess is somewhere between $100 and $150 million reduction in NPV.
The current share price looks cheap but the overall share market is jittery at present so an overreaction isn't too much of a surprise.
The share price should never have reached 43cents, 20 cents was high. I sold out at 18.5 switched into MEP, I didn't take profits in MEP as I mistakenly interpreted capital relief as meaning no capital gains tax if shares held to merger. (Capital relief means a discounted purchase price). I have since sold my entire holdings in ADN, I had massive profits in my early ADN holdings and massive paper profits in MEP, all lost and balanced out by the recent drop in ADN share price.
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Last
0.8¢ |
Change
0.001(7.14%) |
Mkt cap ! $25.45M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.7¢ | 0.8¢ | 0.7¢ | $6.536K | 911.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
38 | 18847302 | 0.7¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.8¢ | 15121534 | 18 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
38 | 18847302 | 0.007 |
56 | 19846945 | 0.006 |
33 | 16133693 | 0.005 |
11 | 10893002 | 0.004 |
7 | 11448333 | 0.003 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.008 | 15121534 | 18 |
0.009 | 16472544 | 17 |
0.010 | 8977806 | 12 |
0.011 | 14387431 | 7 |
0.012 | 13774699 | 8 |
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