Lukej,To answer your question regards a path out. one would have...

Lukej,

To answer your question regards a path out. one would have to think that a path to eventual profitability will occur. It's a reasonable simple operation. It's the change in strategy that has surprised the market. The change has lowered the NPV of the project, for example if you're using a discount rate of 10% then a 12 month delay drops the NPV by 10% because revenue doesn't start flowing for 12 months later, but costs can still be incurred on the earlier timeframe. Couple the delay with a change to a smaller start up plant, then a big change to NPV occurs. No updated estimate has been provided, but my guess is somewhere between $100 and $150 million reduction in NPV.

The current share price looks cheap but the overall share market is jittery at present so an overreaction isn't too much of a surprise.

The share price should never have reached 43cents, 20 cents was high. I sold out at 18.5 switched into MEP, I didn't take profits in MEP as I mistakenly interpreted capital relief as meaning no capital gains tax if shares held to merger. (Capital relief means a discounted purchase price). I have since sold my entire holdings in ADN, I had massive profits in my early ADN holdings and massive paper profits in MEP, all lost and balanced out by the recent drop in ADN share price.