My sibling? Lol.
Fair point, and I will sit down and post some metrics. Certainly you can't divide NPV by a third as costs and revenue will not divide by 3 proportionally. What we need to see is positive cash flow, and with the right selection of product we can get there. For example, the HRM off take is x gate and with a substantial margin, far exceeding the published NPV for that proportion of output.
The downrampers are correct in saying there is not enough info to correct value this starter plant.
It will however be profitable, and once we get details of the last offtakes it will be easier to guesstimate the revenue and costs.
The starter plant is also merely a intermediate step towards Phase 1.
James has said that customers are reluctant to sign until ADN's quality is proven, so with this assumption I'd expect an exponential uptake as the years go on.
After the incoming funding I'd expect much later to see Rights Issue or similar down the track to accelerate Phase 1 or Phase 2.
It easier to make money if you already have money, that applies to ADN and its offtakes also. As they build a brand, a reputation, so will the increase in offtakes.
Anyway thanks for the challenge of providing some numbers, I will sit down over the next week or so and perhaps provide a furry 777's equivalent analysis. I do hope he is doing and recovering well. My partner has nominated for skeleton Christmas duty so over that period I'll do some numbers.
Christmas spending, PERP just around the corner, bbqs incoming with all the nice weather. Good luck all.
This month we didn't dilute with 43m options to shares, it's effectively a 1.5% increase in our net worth per share
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