General comments/chat, page-37685

G'Day Michelred,

I guess you are referring to historic lows to base your prediction of fair value at 0.03.

2016 to 2019 low 0.01

March 2020 low 0.03

Currently ADN is tracking the SMA low of 0.04 of May 2020.

The latest 6 monthly trend is upwards from lows of 0.039, 0.041 and recently 0.042.

I see mega external factors in play as well as company fundamentals. Both counter to each other.

All negatives: Not many positives. All macro-cyclic. All self-evident.

1.Global interest rate increases slowly choking off liquidity.

2. Global regional tensions and wars.

3. Major weather and seismic events.

4. Global energy, water and protein issues.

5. Global weather, climate events and trends.

6. Inflation, stagflation, whatever, people are struggling to pay mortgages, bills and food prices are increasing, etc.

7, SA Govt growing interest in critical minerals. A positive among the negatives.

Company fundamentals: (mixed, not clear strategies)

1. Resource has not changed, will get bigger with drilling.
2. Product mix, evolving, organic, will improve with sales history.
3. Environmental approval, Start of mining. Highly likely this quarter.
4. Capital structure, if managed well will improve with sales off-takes.
5. EPS, low to start with, may surprise to the upside with new value added products.
6, Growing interest in CCS.
7. REM, Gold, other critical minerals.

Share holders are frustrated with mgmt, delays, etc.

Next 12 months looking better than past 12 months.

Agree if it hits 0.03 buy. Dont believe it will unless Black Swan.

GLTAH