General comments/chat, page-39632

Hi SOTT

I did a little study around EMH a while back and formed the opinion then that markets are definitely not efficient, this is no more evident than spec companies that are not producing any revenue. In ADN's situation, how can we even start to work out the true market cap, the closest we will get to understanding the value of a company is when we see financials after production. This is when the big boys run the numbers to compare dividends etc to SP, even then games are still played. If we are to believe that ADN will go mining and sell our magic clay at the volumes they are saying, then the MC in my opinion is multiples of where it is now, how can it not be!

So, why does the MC keep getting lower? The way I am seeing ADN at the minute is, retail traders are playing into the shorter's hands, some retail traders will make monies, some won't and then a little of both. It all depends whether they have sells on if the shorter's dump a few shares, this then catches some retail traders out, the good ones will sell and start again. These retail sells however drop the SP even further, this then starts the LTH to then question what to do and perhaps more shares are dumped. This all forces the SP down. The pro shorter's will have the software to work all this out so they can time their dumps. They are relying on the retail traders dumping and the LTH that dump as they see a falling SP. This is where the shorter's will cover their positions and start again. So, in conclusion, the current MC has nothing to do with the fundamentals.

So, fundamentals of the company, well Bob has said that we should get uDFS in mid-August, this gives the ones above a little bit of a timeline with how to they play their games.
With timelines:

• HRM, I don't think we were ever going to see an announcement around this, if it's in the uDFS, then for me this is confirmation. The only announcement before the uDFS that I could see is being a negative one and that's if IMCD cancelled the contract. If ADN cancelled the contract this would only be to replace it with a better one. I have said in the past, given the staged approach there is no rush to sign BoA's for HRM or even CRM if they have enough BoA's to get funding etc for stage 1a.

• Debt/1a, again, I never thought we would see this before the uDFS. This is for a couple of reasons; ADN is technically in no rush given cash in the bank. The main reason I see this though is because the debt will no doubt come with a portion of shares issued to the debt provider. It would not make sense for ADN to release this info before the uDFS. Once we see the uDFS and for me more importantly the level of shares issued and at what price, this will indicate what they believe the MC to be for ADN. If this comes at a premium, then it shows the current MC for ADN is undervalued. ADN will no likely be using a third party to value the company and the debt providers will run their own numbers to decide what they believe the value to off the company and come to an agreement. Once this comes out the SP should increase, let's not forget these debt providers generally know what they are doing and how to make a dollar! As to the timing of the debt announcement, I think this comes down to either there being enough BoA's signed now and they could release with the uDFS or shortly after, or they are waiting to see the LOI to turn into a BoA. A LOI is just the first part in working up to a full agreement. Who knows, the current LOI could be enough for the debt providers to sign off on debt if ADN convert straight to a BoA but given they have until Sept, ADN might think they can further improve the deal (or even get a better one from somewhere else). Either way, ADN will know from the debt providers what they need to hand over cash for 1a, so I cant see this being an issue.

As many have said, Bob dropped a nice little chunk of monies on shares at a lot higher price than where we are now. Bob doesn't appear to be a stupid man and would have had a pretty good idea back then what he believes the value of the company to be.

I agree with your points though, and not knowing these numbers makes it nearly impossible for us to start to run short term numbers.
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Anyways hopefully we should see something over the next couple of weeks and the SP at least double, maybe even triple!