I just wrote a huge response to this and it didn’t post...im...

First 18368 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Sk1nman

4,741 Posts.

1073

02/04/21

02:10

Post #: 52220894
Share

Originally posted by RoyE: ↑

As I wrote on this thread previously, ADN's market cap (even with recent price falls) is still very, very expensive compared to peers IMO.

I know that the companies are not directly comparable and ADN potentially has blue sky (as yet unquantified/unproven), however if you compare its Project metrics (most recently published NPV of Project compared to market cap) to a number of the others it will show just how overvalued ADN currently is compared to peers IMO. By way of example, yesterday a peer listed on the ASX published a DFS - the market cap of their Project is USD 1 billion, their current market cap is only $185 million, and I consider that they are more advanced than ADN with their Project. It is a HPA project and ADN has mentioned that they may look at HPA as an additional product stream. Also yesterday another ASX listed kaolin co announced a non binding MOU with a large Chinese ceramic co - I didn't take much notice of the announcement but it does demonstrate that there is some competition in this space.

Someone posted on here the other day that ADN offered 98% reward, 2% risk. When I read the post, I immediately thought to myself that I would have characterised it as closer to the opposite - 98% risk and 2% reward.

Shorting of ADN has increased recently since shorters now have a source from whom to borrow the stock (institutions who were obliged to buy ADN when it was included in the All Ords Index). However, you have to ask yourself the question 'Why are the shorters keen to short ADN?' Shorting can be riskier than going long since potential losses are open ended (this can be managed with stop loss orders). I doubt that anyone posting on this thread is a shorter since, as far as I am aware, the institutions who hold stock don't lend it to individuals (lending out of the stock involves full credit assessment of the borrower - in this case the shorter).

Posters on here talk about the $1 party - I wish you luck however I wonder how many of you have actually thought about what that means - ADN already has approx. 2.1 billion shares on issue - a $1 party implies a market cap of approx. 2.1 billion! And that's not taking into account any further share issue for project financing, working capital etc. The only way I can conceivably envisage $1 is by way of share consolidation.

GLTA & DYOR

Expand

I just wrote a huge response to this and it didn’t post...

im gonna paraphrase...this is professional

not held no sentiment and yet takes the time to write a post like this. My resolve to hold just for stronger.

in fact thanks for the top up I got at 28...never thought I’d see those prices again!

ADN Price at posting: 29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
13 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

There are more pages in this discussion • 25,110 more messages in this thread...

First 18368 Last

Add ADN (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 1.7¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $52.87M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.8¢	1.8¢	1.7¢	$100.6K	5.614M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
26	7644959	1.7¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.8¢	266561	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
26	7644959	0.017
45	10127336	0.016
23	8054048	0.015
6	1638544	0.014
6	3876923	0.013

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.018	266561	1
0.019	3438063	11
0.020	1954738	17
0.021	4139035	6
0.022	1930273	9

Last trade - 16.10pm 16/05/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 1.8¢		Change 0.000 ( 4.65 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
1.8¢	1.9¢	1.8¢	2885837
Last updated 15.59pm 16/05/2024 ?

ADN (ASX) Chart

I just wrote a huge response to this and it didn’t post...im...

Featured News

The home PC changed retail stores forever. Shekel Brainweigh can do it again

Greentech and Anax team up to put Whim Creek copper hub on steroids

After long delays, Mantle Minerals kicks off drillrun for gold at Mt Berghaus

Miramar upgrades target within WA's Gidji, suggests extension to Northern Star's 8 Mile Dam

Market Close: Green light launches ASX lift off as US inflation ebbs

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

I just wrote a huge response to this and it didn’t post...im...

Featured News

Top Stories

The home PC changed retail stores forever. Shekel Brainweigh can do it again

Greentech and Anax team up to put Whim Creek copper hub on steroids

After long delays, Mantle Minerals kicks off drillrun for gold at Mt Berghaus

Miramar upgrades target within WA's Gidji, suggests extension to Northern Star's 8 Mile Dam

Market Close: Green light launches ASX lift off as US inflation ebbs

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News