@wombat777
I've attempted to do a rNPV for Zantrene, purely for the FTO indicated revenue(2.8B), trying to ramp up over 5 years(10%, 30%, 50%, 75% and 100% for the remaining years with a span of 15 years), only because it's the only projected figure we have been given by the company.
I've used an inital %2 discount(interest rate) with a 13.8% net income based off an article(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054843/?report=classic) which has determined the margins of big pharma. I've then discounted for risk based off P1 and P2 probabilities(15% and 53%).
We've been told to use these rNPV to determine present value, but I find this is in stark contrast to buyouts occuring post P2 results(ie x3-5 peak sales). Am I doing something wrong with my rNPV? It seems that the buyouts at multiples of peak sales seems to come out much much higher than the determined rNPV.
I've found this site to be a good page for determining valuation of biotechs: https://www.toptal.com/finance/valuation/biotech-valuation.
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